Lowest Mortgage Rates Just Popped Back Above 4%. Here’s What That Actually Means For You.

Rates are jumping. Bond yields are surging in both the U.S. and Canada. And everyone’s asking the same question: fixed or variable? Western Canada’s fastest-rising broker, Liam Ramadan, gives you the real answer.

For a few weeks there, it finally felt like we were catching a break. Fixed mortgage rates were steadily sliding. Some insured 5-year fixed mortgages even dipped into the high-3% range¹ — numbers we haven’t seen in a long time.

Now?
Those same 5-year fixed rates have pushed back above 4%, and a lot of Canadians are thinking:
“Did I miss my chance? Did I screw this up by waiting?”

Short answer: No.
Long answer: You just need a better game plan than hoping your bank feels generous this week.

This is what actually happened — and what smart Canadians should be doing about it.

Why Did Rates Jump So Fast?

Fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. When that yield moves, lenders reprice almost instantly.

Over the past couple of weeks, the 5-year bond yield surged from around 2.70% to about 3.10%¹ — a big jump in a short period.
Lenders responded exactly how lenders always do: they raised rates.

Why did bond yields spike?

1. Stronger-than-expected Canadian data.
Q3 GDP posted roughly 2.6% annualized growth¹ ² — better than expected.
The labour market also came in hot, with tens of thousands of jobs added in November and the unemployment rate dipping from 6.9% to 6.5%³.

2. Global yields moved higher.
Bond yields in the U.S., U.K., euro area, and Japan all climbed¹. When global markets shift, Canada follows.

3. Government deficits + tariff pressures.
Ottawa’s fiscal plan includes a projected $78B deficit¹. More borrowing = upward pressure on yields.
Add in U.S. tariffs and the inflationary ripple effects⁴, and markets react.

Your bank didn’t raise rates “just because.”
Markets moved. Lenders reacted.

“If The Data Looks Good, Why Does Everything Still Feel Tight?”

Because the headline numbers don’t tell the full story.

GDP looks strong, but a chunk of Q3 growth came from imports falling, not from booming spending². That boosts GDP on paper but doesn’t improve household budgets.

The jobs number looked great, but most gains were part-time, and roughly 30,000 people left the labour force, which artificially lowers the unemployment rate³.

So yes, the economy appears resilient.
But mortgage renewals at higher rates still hurt.

What’s the Bank of Canada Doing?

The Bank of Canada’s **policy rate remains at 2.25%**⁵.
Inflation is sitting around the 2–2.5% range⁶ — close to target but sticky underneath.

Most economists expect the Bank to hold rates for now and only resume cuts when inflation convincingly cools⁷.

Translation:
Variable rates may improve later.
But don’t build your whole financial plan on “may.”

The Renewal Wave Is Coming

Here’s the reality:

By the end of 2026, about 60% of Canadian mortgages will have renewed¹.
Roughly 40% of homeowners will renew into a higher rate than what they locked previously¹.

This isn’t a mortgage cliff — it’s a long, steep hill.

Most Canadians will get through it.
But many will feel:

Higher monthly payments
Tighter cashflow
Less discretionary spending
Reduced refinance flexibility if income or equity is tight

Planning ahead matters now more than ever.

Fixed vs Variable: Which One Is Better?

It depends on you, not the headlines.

Variable may save money long-term if the Bank of Canada cuts rates.
Fixed offers stability during uncertainty⁵.

My simple rule:

If rate movement stresses you out → Go fixed.
If you have budget room and can ride volatility → Consider variable.

There is no universal answer — only what fits your life.

So… Did You Miss the Boat?

No.
You didn’t miss anything except one moment. There will be more.

The real questions to ask are:

Am I in the right mortgage product for my situation?
Do I have a renewal strategy, not just a renewal date?
Has anyone besides my bank actually shopped my file?

If the answer to that last one is “no,” you don’t have a plan — you have hope.

Why You Need a Broker (Not Just Your Bank)

Let’s be real:

Your bank is not your mortgage strategist.
They are a business with one product shelf — their own.

A broker gives you:

Access to multiple lenders
True leverage through competing offers
Better product structures, not just rates
Options banks rarely explain (switches, blends, consolidations)
Objective guidance — not bank-incentivized advice

Most Canadians qualify for more options than they ever hear about.
Not because they’re unavailable — because banks don’t show them.

Who Should Be Talking to Me Right Now?

1. Buyers waiting for “perfect timing.”
Stop trying to time the exact bottom. Start building a strategy.

2. Anyone renewing in 6–24 months.
This is the window for leverage — not the week you get a renewal letter.

3. Homeowners feeling payment or debt pressure.
You’re not failing. The system is expensive. But you likely have options — consolidation, restructuring, refinancing, lender switching — you just need someone to lay them out clearly.

My Job Is Simple: Reduce Confusion. Increase Options. Save You Money.

When you reach out, you get:

Straight answers.
Multiple options.
Clear math.
Zero fluff.

Just a plan that fits your life.

If You Want a Strategy Instead of Guesswork

Whether you’re buying, renewing, refinancing, or trying to ease monthly pressure, we’ll build a smart, personalized plan.

📲 Call or Text: 1-825-333-6468
🌐 Book a Call: LiamTheBroker.ca
📧 Email: Info@mintmortgages.ca

If the market keeps moving fast, you deserve someone who knows exactly how to move with it.